Jayalalithaa set to sweep Tamil Nadu polls: Opinion poll

Jayalalithaa has moved past Karunanidhi to be viewed as the more favoured candidate for chief ministership.

The Tamil Nadu government beat back incumbency in 2006 and J. Jayalalithaa's tainted record as chief minister seemed to have something to do with it. But suddenly over the last one year, the shoe is on the other foot. As corruption charges multiply, the DMK and its partner Congress are facing a crisis of mammoth proportions. The Headlines Today-ORG opinion poll set out to map the anger of the population of Tamil Nadu. Here's what it found:

The first question was: Is corruption an important issue in these elections? Fifty-one of the population believes it is, while 34 per cent believe it is not.

Jayalalithaa has moved past Karunanidhi to be viewed as the more favoured candidate for chief ministership. Her 37 per cent approval rating gives her almost a 3 per cent lead over the present chief minister.

In fact, Karunanidhi's administration is now considered far more corrupt than the one provided by Jayalalithaa, with 39 per cent of those polled saying Karuna's government was more corrupt, while 21 per cent say it was the one ruled by Jaya.

If the DMK thought that the spectrum scam is beyond the understanding of the aam janata, they are badly mistaken. Fifty-one per cent people say they understand what the issue is and what A. Raja's involvement in the scam is. Seventeen per cent say they do not understand the scam.

Thirty-eight per cent of those polled said corruption and Karunandihi family's involvement in the 2G scam are an issue in these elections, while 26 per cent disagree.

Karunanidhi's handling of the killings of Indian fishermen by Lanka has further dented his image. A full 41 per cent of the people polled said they were not satisfied with the manner in which the government tackled this emotive issue and 25 per cent of the people said they were satisfied with Karuna's actions in the matter.

Lastly, price rise too may just queer the pitch for Karunanidhi with 59 per cent of voters believing it is a significant issue in these elections and 27 per cent believe it is not.

Finally, here's a look at what Headlines Today-ORG projects for the 2011 elections in Tamil Nadu. These are based on 2009 Lok Sabha elections.

In 2009, the ADMK alliance got 37 per cent of the vote share. DMK-Congress combine had 43 per cent of the vote share.

Two years later, ORG projects the ADMK alliance will get 50 per cent of the vote share, it's 45 per cent for DMK-Congress and 5 per cent for others.

If there were assembly elections in 2009, ADMK+ would have won 75 seats, while the DMK-Congress would have won 157 seats.

Look at how the tide has turned. ORG now projects the ADMK alliance romping home with 164 seats, while Congress and DMK will suffer a huge setback winning just 68 seats with Others getting 2 seats.